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Impact - EC research project

investigation of extreme flood processes and uncertainty

investigation of extreme flood processes and uncertainty

Work programme EC Research Project:
Project Reference No. EVG1-CT2001-00037

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WP 2: Breach Formation - Numerical Modelling


1. Test Programme
2. Test Data / Results


1. Test Programme

In conjunction with the Field and Laboratory modelling is the numerical modelling. The objective of the numerical modelling is:

  • To identify the best numerical approach / approaches for simulating breach formation through embankments
  • To assess and quantify the level of uncertainty of current breach modelling techniques
  • To incorporate knowledge gained from undertaking the field and Lab. tests into existing modelling tools.

Figure 1 shows the interaction between the numerical modelling work and the field and laboratory modelling tests.







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Figure 1: Interaction between field, lab. and numerical work


There are three aspects to this numerical modelling programme:

  • 'Blind' and 'Aware' Testing
    A significant number of the numerical model testing will be undertaken as'blind' tests to ensure complete objectivity. Blind means that numerical modellers will be asked to undertake their work and submit their results the results from the field and laboratory tests are released. Modellers will then also be invited to submit further (revised) modelling results after receiving the field or lab test results ('Aware' testing). Details and justification of any variations to the modelling approach (as compared to the blind tests) should accompany any results submitted.

    The following table shows a list of numerical modelling runs:

    RunCode
    t = theoretical
    a = aware
    b = blind
    Data set
    Test type
    Release date
    Submission Date
    Test objective/
    Comments
    Blind
    Aware
    NF1t Field Test #1
    x
    30/07/02 16/08/02 Initial Data set
    NF1b Field Test #1
    x
    10/02/03 07/03/03 Re release due to new survey and calibration of gates
    NF1a Field Test #1
    x
    10/03/03 28/03/03 Release of the field data
    NF2t Field Test #2
    x
    19/08/02 02/09/02 Initial data set
    NF2b Field Test #2
    x
    10/03/03 28/03/03 Re release due to new survey and calibration of gates
    NF2a Field Test #2
    x
    31/03/03 18/04/03 Release of the field data
    NF3b Field Test #3
    x
    26/01/04 1/03/04 Modelling overtopping failure in composite embankments
    NF3a Field Test #3 x 1/03/04 22/03/04
    NF4b Field Test #4 x 26/01/04 1/03/04 Modelling piping failure in homogeneous embankments
    NF4a Field Test #4 x 1/03/04 22/03/04
    NF5b Field Test #5 x 26/01/04 1/03/04 Modelling piping failure in composite embankments
    NF5a Field Test #5
    x
    1/03/04 22/03/04
    NL2b Lab Test # 2 x 06/11/02 25/11/02 Assess Effect of sediment uniformity
    NL2a Lab Test # 2 x 25/11/02 16/12/02
    NL4b Lab Test # 4 x 06/11/02 25/11/02 Assess effect of breach location
    NL4a Lab Test # 4 x 25/11/02 16/12/02
    NL5b Lab Test # 5 x 21/04/03 16/05/03 Direct replication to field event
    NL5a Lab Test # 5 x 19/05/03 27/06/03
    NL6b Lab Test # 6 x 21/04/03 16/05/03 Assess effect of face slope
    NL6a Lab Test # 6 x 19/05/03 27/06/03
    NL7b Lab Test # 7 x 21/04/03 16/05/03 Assess effect of crest width
    NL7a Lab Test # 7 x 19/05/03 27/06/03
    NL9b Lab Test # 9 x 21/04/03 16/05/03 Assess effect of seepage
    NL9a Lab Test # 9 x 19/05/03 27/06/03
    NL10b Lab Test #10 x 26/01/04 1/03/04  Direct replication to field event
    NL10a Lab Test #10 x 1/03/04 22/03/04
    NL11b Lab Test #12 x 26/01/04 1/03/04  Assess repeatability of test
    NL11a Lab Test #12 x 1/03/04 22/03/04
    NL12b Lab Test #12 x 26/01/04 1/03/04  Assess effect of compaction
    NL12a Lab Test #12 x 1/03/04 22/03/04
    NL13b Lab Test #13 x 26/01/04 1/03/04 Assess effect of moisture content
    NL13a Lab Test #13 x 1/03/04 22/03/04
    NL14b Lab Test #14 x 26/01/04 1/03/04 Assess effect of seepage
    NL14a Lab Test #14 x 1/03/04 22/03/04
    NL15b Lab Test #15 x 26/01/04 1/03/04 Assess effect of downstream face
    slope
    NL15a Lab Test #15 x 1/03/04 22/03/04
    NL16b Lab Test #16 x 26/01/04 1/03/04 Assess effect of downstream face slope
    NL16a Lab Test #16 x 1/03/04 22/03/04
    NL17b Lab Test #17 x 26/01/04 1/03/04 Assess effect of construction material
    NL17a Lab Test #17 x 1/03/04 22/03/04

  • Participation in Numerical Modelling
    Participation in as many of the tests listed above is encouraged from as wider a group of participants as possible. However, it is recognised that the number of tests listed above is large and probably beyond the time availability of many participants. Modellers are therefore invited to undertake a number of core modelling tests and as many of the remaining tests as they are able.

  • Core Runs:
    Core modelling tests include both blind and aware runs for:
    • 5 field tests (NF1, NF2, NF3, NF4, NF5)
    • 9 lab replication tests (NL2 , NL45 , NL5, NL9 , NL10, NL12, NL13, NL15, NL17)

  • Remaining Runs:
    There is considerable value to be gained in also undertaking modelling for the remaining lab tests. Many of these variations will require minimal change to numerical models for simulation and modellers are encouraged to participate wherever possible.

    [Note: Analysis of these runs will be undertaken by at least 1 member of the IMPACT project team however
    multiple analysis is preferred].

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2. Test Data / Results

Modelling Analysis

Modellers are encouraged to undertake more detailed analysis of model run and performance wherever possible. For example:

  1. Tests to check the effect of the different assumptions on the model results.
  2. Tests to check the effect of the variation (accuracy) of the field and lab data on the model results.
  3. Tests to identify parameters that have a major effect on the model results.

The above is a list of suggestions. Each modeller is encouraged to undertake the tests that he/she sees appropriate
for his/her model.
The submitted results have to be in ASCII format. Results should as a minimum include the following:

  1. Outflow hydrograph at the breach location.
  2. Breach development with time (width and depth)
  3. Reservoir water levels hydrograph. (far enough from the breach to avoid the draw down effects)
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